Weekend Box Office Predictions Game: Thor Should Hammer Competition

May 05, 2011

Marvel's Thor enters this weekend at the box office with its sights set on eclipsing the $86.2 million opening that Fast Five sped to last weekend. Will it succeed with the 3D ticket price boost? Or will the lack of Robert Downey Jr. and inclusion of otherworldly elements keep casual moviegoers at arm's length?

In this new round of our Weekend Box Office Prophet Game, you will try to predict what Thor and Fast Five, as well as Rio, Something Borrowed and Jumping the Broom, will make in ticket sales between Friday, May 6 and Sunday, May 8. Your predictions are averaged in with the other players to go up against our Prophet predictions with the goal being to beat The Prophet by 3 or more of the 5 films. If you do, the top player finisher will take home Jackass 3, The Fighter and Morning Glory on Blu-ray.

In the last round, The Prophet won 4-1 despite missing on several films badly. Note that Predator on Blu-ray was inadvertently included in the prize pot that round when in fact we don't have it to give. Should The Prophet win again this round then another Blu-ray will be added to the pot in the next round, bringing the total to 4.

The average player scores will update in real time below as new player predictions are made. This round's entry period will close tonight at 9pm PST Thursday, May 5. Be sure to hammer in your predictions before the game entry period closes.

There are currently 46 players up against the Prophet

The entry period for May 6 - 8 has already ended. Follow the weekly results at the Weekend Box Office Prophet main page.

Jumping the Broom
Have you heard of Jumping the Broom? No? Then you're not alone. The lack of exposure and almost nonexistent world of mouth for the uptown/downtown comedy, plus the measly 1,900 screen count, paves an uphill path to box office success. Angela Bassett may provide a little boost but otherwise, don't expect much.

All: $7.9 Me: n/a Prophet: $8.4 Actual: $15.2

Something Borrowed
Warner Bros. joins the Thor counter-programming party with Something Borrowed starring Kate Hudson and John Krasinski. Whether you think Hudson's tabloid followed pregnancy and the guy from The Office headlining a film will attract big crowds should play into your prediction. It opens on between 2,900 and 3,000 screens.

All: $14.1 Me: n/a Prophet: $6.3 Actual: $13.9

Thor
The only question mark for Marvel and Paramount's Thor is whether it can beat Fast Five's opening last weekend. It will win the weekend handily, especially given the 3D ticket surcharge. This is a big test for The Avengers franchise which hopes to pull in Iron Man-like numbers without Robert Downey Jr. driving the money train. Opens on 3,500 screens.

All: $70.2 Me: n/a Prophet: $74.7 Actual: $65.7

Fast Five
Fast Five ran over the competition last weekend with a huge $86.2 million opening. Thor will certainly eat into its second week totals, but it may be able to secure a 50% or less drop given the extremely strong word of mouth and equally strong performance during this past week,.

All: $42.0 Me: n/a Prophet: $39.0 Actual: $32.4

Rio
Rio enters its third weekend and must contend with Thor taking a good chunk of its 3D screens. On the plus side, there's no big family competition entering the market this weekend so Rio should remain the top family draw. Last weekend it made $14.8 million, a 43% drop from its opening weekend.

All: $9.0 Me: n/a Prophet: $8.2 Actual: $8.5