Weekend Box Office Predictions Game: Shrek Defuses MacGruber?

May 19, 2010

Shrek Forever After is the big question mark in this latest round of the Weekend Box Office Prophet Game where you predict what five films will make in ticket sales in the upcoming weekend. In the last round, the Prophet took 4 of the 5 films from the player averages including winning Iron Man 2 by a mere $100k. Punisher707 receives a consolation prize for finishing with the best score amongst all the players.

Taking on the big green ogre this weekend in our game is Universal's MacGruber with Will Forte and Kristen Wiig, along with holdovers Iron Man 2, Letters to Juliet with Amanda Seyfried, and Ridley Scott's Robin Hood with Russell Crowe.

The game's objective is to guess the final domestic box office dollars in millions for these five films from Friday, May 21 through Sunday, May 23. Your prediction is averaged in with the other players for a cumulative score to compete against the Prophet predictions (view the overall leaderboard).

Should the average player differences between the actual box office gross and predicted grosses beat the Prophet for 3 or more of the 5 films, the top player will win last week's prize, Mel Brooks' High Anxiety on Blu-ray Disc, as well as this week's prize, Robin Hood: Men in Tights on Blu-ray Disc. A tie goes in favor of the players.

If the Prophet wins then both prizes will rollover into the next round and be joined by a third. We will still award a small prize to the top place finisher should that happen.

Once you are logged in, the average player scores will update in real time below as new predictions are entered. The entry period will close at 9pm PST Thursday, May 20, with this round's results being published in the next round's game page next Tuesday or Wednesday.

There are currently 46 players up against the Prophet

The entry period for May 21 - 23 has already ended. Follow the weekly results at the Weekend Box Office Prophet main page.

Shrek Forever After
The Shrek saga is coming to an end. In 3D. But it is also a reached a "been there, done that" point. Previous Shrek opening weekends are as follows: Shrek: $42.3 million (3,600 screens), Shrek 2: $108 million (4,200 screens), Shrek The Third: $121.6 million (4100 screens). I think the trend will snap or it wouldn't be the "final" chapter. Opens on 3,800 screens.

All: $93.5 Me: n/a Prophet: $88.4 Actual: $70.8

MacGruber
The latest Saturday Night Live skit-turned-movie could be yet another flop for Universal if history is any indication. A Night at the Roxbury, anyone? That disaster opened to $9.6 million. I expect MacGruber to do better with 200 more screens at 2,400 and higher ticket prices. The R-rating could keep it from going much higher.

All: $13.9 Me: n/a Prophet: $13.7 Actual: $4.0

Iron Man 2
It's weekend number three for Iron Man 2 which hopes to shake off a steep 59.4% drop last weekend to $52 million from the ginormous $128.1 million opening weekend. Shrek will undoubtedly chomp into its potential earnings, but a second place finish is well within reach. The original Iron Man made $31.8 million in its third frame.

All: $33.0 Me: n/a Prophet: $29.3 Actual: $26.4

Robin Hood
A $36.1 million opening for Robin Hood was pretty much in line with expectations. Despite mixed reviews it played close to Iron Man 2 on Monday and should easily land in third place this upcoming weekend. A $20 million second weekend is not outside the realm of possibility.

All: $19.8 Me: n/a Prophet: $21.8 Actual: $18.8

Letters to Juliet
Your miss on Letters to Juliet should be the smallest of this week's films as its opening weekend was $13.5 million leaving little room for error. A strong showing would be anything around $10 million in its second weekend, a distinct possibility given no new competition is entering the romantic genre.

All: $8.4 Me: n/a Prophet: $9.7 Actual: $9.0