Weekend Box Office Predictions Game: Apes Will Battle Damn Dirty Jokes

August 04, 2011

Summer winds down at the box office this weekend as the latest prequel reboot out of Hollywood, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, and yet another R-rated comedy in The Change-Up starring Ryan Reynolds and Jason Bateman, aim to topple Cowboys & Aliens from its top spot.

This weekend will be a tough one to predict as Apes is getting strong reviews but is struggling to build awareness and interested. m>The Change-Up is getting horrific reviews for the story, but even some of those critics admit the film is overall genuinely funny.

In this new round of our Weekend Box Office Prophet Game, you are invited to predict what these four films plus Captain America: The First Avenger will make at the domestic box office between Friday, August 5 and Sunday, August 7. Your predictions are averaged in with the other players to up against the Prophet. The winner is whoever takes 3 of 5 films. Additionally, you'll be able to track your score against each individual player on the main game page.

We plan on introducing prizing into the game if ongoing and increasing participation warrants it.

Player predictions entered will immediately update the average prediction scores below. This round's entry period will close tonight at 9pm PST Thursday, August 4.

There are currently 36 players up against the Prophet

The entry period for August 5 - 7 has already ended. Follow the weekly results at the Weekend Box Office Prophet main page.

Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Another prequel reboot. Ugh, right? Critics say otherwise with the return of those damn, dirty apes tracking over 80% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. Whether that translates into ticket sales is another matter. Opens on 3,500 screens.
All: $39.2   Me: n/a   Prophet: $35.3   Actual: $54.8
The Change-Up
The Change-Up will get a little boost simply because its from the writers of The Hangover. It also stars Ryan Reynolds who has historically done well in the slacker comedy role. Combine that with the R-rating and raunchy humor and The Change-Up should do better than its horrible reviews suggest. Remember that it opens on only 2,700 screens.
All: $23.7   Me: n/a   Prophet: $20.8   Actual: $13.5
Cowboys & Aliens
Cowboys & Aliens underperformed in its $36.4 million opening last weekend. Most speculators are calling for a drop anywhere from 45-55% as it heads into its second weekend. I tend to agree that the drop will end up somewhere in that range.
All: $18.4   Me: n/a   Prophet: $14.6   Actual: $15.7
The Smurfs
The Smurfs with $35.6 million lost a close call last weekend with Cowboys & Aliens as Harrison Ford ripped the head off a smurf doll on national television. Revenge could be a dish best served cold as The Smurfs could top Jon Favreau's genre mash-up in weekend number two.
All: $21.3   Me: n/a   Prophet: $19.0   Actual: $20.7
Captain America: The First Avenger
Cap managed $25.6 million in its second frame last weekend, a 60.7 percent drop from its opening weekend. The arrival of Rise of the Planet of the Apes battling for the same demographic surely won't help. Another 50 percent or higher drop could be in the cards for The First Avenger.
All: $14.7   Me: n/a   Prophet: $13.2   Actual: $13.0

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